Tailwinds Yeehee
This is your captain speaking due to unexepected tailwinds we are arriving at our valuation targets sooner than expected. (Yapping about tailwinds benefitting my portfolio.)
Take a shot for every time I say tailwind in this article.
Gold Tailwinds
I initially invested in the gold companies I own due to them being undervalued at a company level and secular macro tailwinds benefiting gold, such as global fiscal deficits and central bank diversifying reserves with gold. However, Trumps tariff tantrums have been an unexpected tailwind to my gold investments.
Tariff induced staglation has been welcoming to the gold price as stagflation is the ideal environment for gold prices due to investors seeking safety and inflation protection. For the past week or so every time the Chinese market opens, we see a spike in the gold price. With tariffs causing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, we continue to see the dollar and US equities dropping, alongside US yields rising, but gold prices increasing. Showing that in these economic and politically uncertain times, investors are skeptical of the safety that US treasuries offer and are seeking safety in gold instead.
With all of these tailwinds in place, I expect Gold to continue its rise. Bringing Integra and First Nordic along for the ride as well.
Integra Resources and First Nordic Metals
Through two bets, gold now makes up ~30% of my portfolio: 17% First Nordic Metals and 13% Integra Resources.
ITRG 0.00%↑ Integra’s performance has been great and has kept up with the increase in gold prices. At $1.87/share, the market cap is ~$320m. At current gold prices I expect Florida Canyon to throw off ~$ 70 m+ in cash flow in 2025. Putting this at 4 - 5x cash flow. Still, virtually no value is assigned to Delamar, which will likely come into production in 3-4 years (maybe faster depending on the effectiveness of Trumps executive order speeding up approval timelines), and with an NPV of over $1 billion at current gold prices. For my price target, I expect Integra to trade at 5x Florida Canyon's cash flow $350m + P/NAV of DeLamar 0.4 P/NPV which if we assume a NPV of $1 billion should be $400m for a combined price target of $750m or $4-$5/share. I likely won’t sell a single share of Integra until we see these share prices.
This conservative valuation also assigns zero value to Nevada North, which has a similar NPV to DeLamar but is a couple of years behind DeLamar in terms of production timeline. One can even assign a higher P/NPV multiple on DeLamar, being that it benefits from Trump’s critical mineral executive order and the funding risk being completely removed due to cash flow from Florida Canyon.
Catalysts:
DeLamar Feasibility Study expected 1H 25 (will give us more info about the NPV)
$FNM.V First Nordic Metals has been lagging the current gold price run-up. I expect this is likely due to them being an exploration company. Compared to Integra, which is already producing gold, allowing them to immediately profit from the rising gold price. I expect patience to come in handy in this investment, as I believe that eventually the cash flow from the producers starts to heat up mine acquisition activity. While there is certainly a risk that First Nordic, being an exploration company, is not able to profit from the current Gold price run-up due to all their projects being multiple years away from production, the current valuation is more than enough of a cushion for me personally. First Nordics’ 45% ownership in the Barsele Deposit alone is an NPV of $1.5-$2 billion CAD at current gold prices.
At a $120m CAD market cap, the company trades at less than 0.1 P/NPV. Assigning no value to exploration targets that are throwing off similar drill results to Barsele, such as the Aida Target.
Considering their land package and drill results, First Nordic has a real possibility of being a tier 1 deposit (6 million oz+) in a jurisdiction with a pro-mining government and low production costs. All while the company remains cheap just off one of their deposits.
The company is conducting a large drilling campaign throughout 2025. I am looking forward to seeing the drill results they release throughout the year.
Pharma
FDA chief Dr. Marty Makary took office on April 1 and he has already begun making changes in the FDA, speeding up approval timelines being one of the main priorities.
I recommend checking out the interview below.
But to summarize, Dr. Marty is speeding up approval times with AI. Using AI to speed up how long it takes the FDA to review applications. And decreasing the requirements to approval and making up for the deregulation by tracking live patient data with AI and cloud computing.
Pharma makes up ~23% of my investment portfolio through 3 companies. 11% ACHV 0.00%↑ , 8% ECOR 0.00%↑ , and 4% NVCT 0.00%↑ .
ACHV 0.00%↑ is a company advancing a new nicotine cessation drug, Cystinicline. Cystinicline has odds of quitting 2x higher than the current generic alternative Varenicline with a noticeably better safety profile as well.
Chantix the brand version of Varenicline owned by Pfizer, had sales of $1 billion in 2019 before being discontinued (due to elevated levels of Nitrosamines). I believe Achieve’s Cystinicline will achieve similar sales levels (most likely higher sales) compared to Chantix due to superior odds of quitting, better safety profile, and an expected additional indication for Vaping cessation as well.
Achieve is expected to submit its NDA in June 2025. They have already received FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation, which mandates a review timeline of 6 months (compared to the standard 10 months). So, even without any changes at the FDA level I expect approval before the end of 2025. Leading to a commercialization in Q3/Q4 2026.
This is already a favorable timeline and Achieve has the potential to be approved even faster due to changes being made at the FDA.
I believe ACHV 0.00%↑ current ~$80m market cap is way too low for the market opportunity they have.
ECOR 0.00%↑ Electrocore’s sales mostly come from their prescription device GammaCore, through their VA channel.
I expect the new FDA chair to bring about a tailwind to Electrocore through speeding up additional indications.
“We are considering several additional medical indications for our nVNS technology, which are being studied in several investigator-initiated trials, or IITs. These indications include post-traumatic stress disorder, opioid use disorders, symptoms of Parkinson's disease, stroke, concussion, attention, nausea, mood, fatigue, and memory retention, among others.” (From 10K)
GammaCore VA sales increased 85% in 2024 while only having Migraine and Cluster Headache indications. Adding on PTSD, Parkinson’s, and other indications will broaden the TAM and allow for a longer/faster runway for Electrocore.
ECOR 0.00%↑ current market cap ~$40m.
With 2024 sales of $25m (57% yoy growth) and 85% gross margins. They are still unprofitable, which makes it harder to value this company, but I expect this rapid growth to continue, and less than 2x sales seems way too cheap for a company growing this fast. With potential for their TAM to grow at an accelerated pace due to the changes within the FDA.
$NVCT’s drug NXP900 is treatment for cancer tumours by inhibiting SRC/YES1 signaling pathways. Specific cancers like Lung cancer are mainly caused by genetic mutations that lead to oncogenic signaling being sent through SRC/YES1 pathways.
I highly recommend checking out the Truffle Pigs substack below for a more in-depth analysis.
With NVCT 0.00%↑ releasing the first human results on April 29 at AACR 25 they stand to benefit from the FDA focus on speeding up approval times. I expect their timeline to be sped up even faster as the FDA focuses on speeding up timelines on life-threatening conditions which NXP 900 adresses.
In these times of turbulent markets it’s always nice to have a couple of tailwinds to add on to the conviction in my positions. I am excited to see how these positions play out in the future but as for now, that’s enough yapping for me.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. It reflects general market observations and analysis based on publicly available data. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any financial losses or damages resulting from the use of this information